Donald Trump- Economic Fright or Miracle? (in German)

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After a heated and arduous election campaign, it is clear that Donald Trump has won the race for the US presidency. The candidate, who is particularly striking in the election campaign with outrageous speeches and full-bodied announcements, promised to create 25 million jobs, invest massively in the infrastructure, and re-establish trade agreements. So what is coming to the US? Foreclosure and isolation, new tariffs and exploding state debts – How many expert prophesies are there? Will Trump lead to an economic catastrophe or a new miracle? And who are actually Trump’s economic policy consultants? Astrid Petermann discusses with Michael Czinkota, a professor at the Georgetown University in Washington and Valentin Hofstätter, analyst and US expert at Raiffeisen Research, in the Austrian economic magazine SALDO.

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A Wall: Constrain, Protect, or Lead

Source: ChinaDaily

Picture Source: ChinaDaily- Cracks appear in the Great Firewall of China

“God created the world, the rest was made in China,” sings Lourd de Veyra. The concern about the Asian factory has lingered for decades. Overlooked has been its gradual strategic transformation from imitator to integrator, or even innovator.

Will China overtake the U.S. and become the new No.1 economy of the world? This anxiety seems as misplaced as earlier forecasts such as Japan’s economy surpassing the U.S. by 2000.

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Will the TTIP deal be ratified?

Hopes are for Obama Administration to push for TTIP ratification before the new U.S. Congress is sworn in, says Georgetown University’s Michael Czinkota. Check the video below to see the latest interview of Prof. Michael Czinkota on TTIP with CNBC.

Will the TTIP deal be ratified?

Sailors On the Ship Europa: No Easy Cruise Ahead

They say more marriages might survive if the couple realized that sometimes the better comes after the worse. Unfortunately, political partners tend to have little patience and loyalty. We have seen the referendum in Scotland that nearly tore the United Kingdom asunder. Now the British exit (BREXIT) from the European Union is rearranging the deck chairs on the ship Europa.

While sailors on the ship, marketers do not have the captain’s power to change the game, but they can help to achieve a less painful adjustment by understanding and preparing for the major transformations and significant effects in marketing on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Economic truth vs. political fiction in presidential debates

The toxic display of rude behavior and character assassination that has become a hallmark of this presidential primary season is matched only by the disturbing manifest ignorance by some of the candidates about economic issues.

We have heard, ad nauseam, epithets such as: “We don’t make things anymore . . . We keep sending our jobs overseas . . . China and Mexico are killing us on trade deals . . . The Chinese manipulate their currencies.”

Each one of these assertions, aimed at riling up the voting public, is absolutely false.

Let’s see what the truth actually is:

▪ “We don’t make things anymore.” This one is the mother of all lies. U.S. manufacturing is strong, growing larger, and more productive and competitive than ever — especially in machinery, electronic equipment, aircraft and vehicles, America’s top four exports. However, it is less labor-intensive as technology (including robots) substitutes humans — a global trend, impacting rich and poor nations alike, including China. Nonetheless, the $2.5 trillion U.S. manufacturing economy faces a shortage of 2 million skilled jobs over the next decade. Both foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports are drivers of America’s manufacturing competitiveness. FDI in manufacturing exceeds $1 trillion, with motor vehicles most prominent (e.g., Honda in Indiana, Nissan in Tennessee, Mercedes in Alabama, BMW in South Carolina). U.S. auto exports (2 million vehicles) set a record high last year.

▪ “We keep sending all our jobs and moving our factories overseas.” Despite all the hysteria over the U.S. outsourcing more and more of our jobs, it affects less than .2 percent of employed Americans. Less than 20 percent of workers affected by outsourcing lose their jobs; the rest are repositioned within the firm. In recent years more and more companies have beenbacksourcing — bringing outsourced work back home. As for “runaway plants,” many of those overseas plants source inputs from the United States. The Mexican operations of Ford and GM, for examples, source 65 percent-75 percent of their components from U.S. plants.

▪ “China and Mexico are killing us on trade deals.” The United States has no free trade deals with China. As for Mexico, part of NAFTA along with Canada, trade has increased 632 percent since the accord was implemented 22 years ago. It now equals over $1 trillion and produces a trade surplus for the U.S., not a deficit. Here’s the math: Mexico sold $290 billion to the U.S. in 2014 — $166 billion was U.S. content, which added to the $240 billion we exported to Mexico renders a surplus for the U.S. of $162 billion. As for other trade deals, next up on the docket is the Trans-Pacific Partnership involving the U.S. and 11 signatory countries. Opposed by a number of the candidates, the agreement eliminates over 18,000 different tariffs on American exports and includes the strongest worker protections of any agreement in history.

“The Chinese are manipulating their currency.” The fact is that every central bank — including the Fed — has the legal monopoly power to fix its exchange rate to achieve price stability or full employment. The U.S. does this through the federal funds rate. It is comparative advantage that drives trade regardless of monetary policy. From 2004-2014 the dollar depreciated 25 percent against the yuan while our deficit with China more than doubled! Nevertheless, as the yuan continues to gain value, expect China to buy more goods and services from the United States; to invest more here ($36 billion currently); to purchase more government securities and to send us more tourists and students.

The xenophobic, protectionist rants of neo-populists of both the left and right prey upon the anger, fear, and limited economic knowledge of voters.

The American people deserve better from those who vie for the highest office in the land.

At the same time citizens have the responsibility to educate themselves to learn the facts and make the most sensible presidential choice for in November.

Jerry Haar is a business professor at Florida International University and a senior research fellow at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business.