The times, in Europe, they are a-changin’

From The Hill

afd_germany_1The German elections are over, and for a brief moment, it looks like all is stable. But make no mistake, this is only the eye of the storm. Germany has already shifted away from the current leadership.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that she has done nothing wrong. While that is true, there are many things she hasn’t done right. Society and its problematics around the world have moved on, circumventing traditional politics and politicians.

From a long-term analytical business perspective, politics requires a new direction. The parties in power may elegantly gloss over losing 10 percentage points in voter support. They talk about how the voters have made a mistake; how all it takes are better explanations and how all these inequities will be rectified shortly. How wrong they are!

Perceptions change. Research by Mintel reports that many consumers now judge soap bars to be a haven for bacteria. Similarly, voters now judge political insiders to be parasites to progress. Our work, which systematically tracks business behavior and expectations over the past 30 years, indicates new core values for voters.

Traditional dimensions of politics and individuals have four key dimensions, illustrated by the four legs of a stool. First is competition, which determines the approach to progress — one party achieves “the winner takes all,” others meekly fall in line for the droppings from the table.

Second is the establishment and management of risk, where steely nerves and occasional disasters determine lifestyle. Then comes profit, which accounts for success in tangible form. Finally, the fourth leg of the stool is property rights, which assure innovators of their return on investments. There now is a simultaneous splintering of all four legs, which inhibits successful conduct of direction.

A new stool with new legs has recently emerged, these changes are crucial in understanding society. First is truthfulness. Firms and voters detest fake news, insincere excuses and thoughtless comments. When the shadows of unreality obscure one’s outlook, exposed people extract a penalty.

Second is simplicity. Employees and citizens want to understand how relationships work and interact. Without that, it is hard to provide or accept truthfulness. Then there is participation, permitting insight beyond simple observation and offering an active role in shaping the conditions which confront one’s life.

The fourth leg is responsibility — going far beyond customary short memories and the traditional pleading of ignorance. The new drive says: “We are here and, if not, we are coming.”

Just as in America, European voters are beginning to be energized by the new legs of the stool and their new criteria. They expect new directions that negate tradition. Judging by shifts in Britain and Spain, stability in Germany may not be that assured.

It’s also not just the money or even economic growth that matter most. Known quantity may give way to even more quality and a rise of local criteria. “Merkelism” will be substituted for Mercantilism. German economic power may be repulsed by regions seeking to regain their cultural self-determination.

The U.S. emphasis on re-shoring, and the enhancing and encouraging of local production is likely a portent of the new Europe, which perhaps reduces Germany from the “King of Exports” to a mere prince. More export-supporting banks will permeate Europe, accompanied by increases in protectionism.

There are still many options for tariff and non-tariff barriers. Within, but particularly outside of the EU, one can expect growing restrictions in both capital and labor flows and a rise of sanctions. Vested interests will become more visible, and provide new decision frameworks.

All that requires a new team. Low-profile politicians will inexorably move onto the new pedestal. Andreas Pinkwart (FDP) and Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg (CSU/CSIS) are two who get it. Bob Dylan may have written the song half a century ago, but now more than eve,r we get key guidance from, “The times, they are a-changing.” The change is with us already — the new stool will give us new rules of success and new directors.

Michael Czinkota (czinkotm@georgetown.edu) teaches international business and trade at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business and the University of Kent. His key book is “International Marketing” 10th ed. (with Ilkka Ronkainen), CENGAGE.

Georgetown First Year Seminar Guest Speakers

I am delighted to have more key experts and guest speakers coming to my seminar.

Most recently we had

Katja Bullock
Special Assistant to the President for Presidential Personnel

 

Picture1Katja holds the same position and duties under Presidents Reagan, Bush 41 & 43 and now for President Trump. She is the Operations Officer in the Office of Presidential Personnel, responsible for all non-career appointments. Katja directs the Correspondence Unit, the Resume Management Group, as well as the clearance and nominating process of all presidential appointments in the Federal Government.

Professor Czinkota is very grateful for the visit of Katja, a key decision maker in White House
appointments. While high ranking politicians and public servants can get a few minutes with Mrs. Bullock, we had her for a full hour.

Frank Vogl

Co-founder Transparency Intl and the Partnership for Transparency Fund

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Frank Vogl is the co-founder of two leading international non-governmental organizations fighting corruption — Transparency International and the Partnership for Transparency.  He teaches a graduate course on “Corruption, Conflict and Security” at Georgetown University; writes frequently on U.S. and international corruption for The Globalist; and, lectures extensively.  Frank is also a specialist in international economics and finance with more than 45 years of experience in these fields.

Georgetown First Year Seminar – Editorial Board

Students in FYS develop an editorial which tackles an institutional trade issue relevant to them. These editorials can take any form of dissemination ranging from print instruments, social media, or Youtube films. The work can include an assessment of government and taxpayer expenditure on a trade related measures. Or it can represent the impact of government actions on corporate trade conditions. With help of a course specific editorial board, each student will write a draft editorial during the semester, to become a final public editorial due on the November 29th session of the course. The first editorial draft is handed in for comment by and discussion with the instructor and the editorial team. Subsequently, after discussion, the goal is to produce one cohesive, brief and insightful commentary which is postable or publishable for mail-out. Each student will collaborate with the editorial board, the coaches and professor. A typed, double-spaced editorial will be presented to the instructor and the board and submitted as an online copy together with a one sentence personal bio and a personal professional picture. The instructor and the coaches will work with students and talk in class about rules for editorials and their improvements.

IMG_5062This year, we have 5 amazing editorialists: (from left to right)

Molly Fleenor
Assistant Director of Communications
Georgetown University McDonough School of Business

Joana Godinho
Guest Producer
CGTN/CCTV News

Nicolette Hurd
Consultant
The McCormick Group

Jennifer Boettcher
Business Information Consultant
Georgetown University

Glenn Morel
CEO & Founder
AVID Productions

Thank you all for the help and your great thoughts! Looking forward to seeing the students’ products!

 

Professor Michael Czinkota (czinkotm@georgetown.edu) teaches international marketing at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business in Washington D.C. and the University of Kent at Canterbury, U.K. His key book (with Ilkka Ronkainen) is International Marketing, 10th ed., CENGAGE

 

 

Georgetown First Year Seminar with Trade Experts

I am delighted to have key experts on trade coming to my seminar. Most recently we had

Mr. William Brock

Frm Senator and U.S. Trade Representative on key Washington trade insiders
 

WechatIMG95Mr. Zhenge Zhao

General Representative of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, USA Representative Office

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Mr. Donald Manzullo

Frm chairman, House committee on Small Business
Currently President and Chief Executive Officer of the Korea Economic Institute of America
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Mr. Francisco Sandoval

Economic Advisor to the Ministry of the Economy’s Trade and NAFTA Office at the Embassy of Mexico in Washington, DC 
Professor Michael Czinkota (czinkotm@georgetown.edu) teaches international marketing at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business in Washington D.C. and the University of Kent at Canterbury, U.K. His key book (with Ilkka Ronkainen) is International Marketing, 10th ed., CENGAGE

The US and Europe demonstrating unity on energy security

Bart Marcois

ukraine_flagCalmly in July, a party leader from the Czech Republic visited Washington to hold discussions with the White House and Republican members in Congress on the basis of shared values, including peace in Europe. At the recommendation of senior national security officials, he has reached out to his neighboring countries, to the east and the west. His aim: to link Europe and the U.S. in a pragmatic formula to secure energy independence in Ukraine and provide economic opportunities for the Czech Republic.

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