New President, New NAFTA

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The Trump Administration will seek modest changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement renegotiation process. According to a draft of a letter sent to Congress last week, the Administration is seeking a more conventional approach to trade negotiation.

NAFTA, which was established in 1994 between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, aims to reduce trading costs, increase multilateral investment, while helping North America become more competitive.However, during the 2016 presidential campaign, President Trump made the debate over free trade one of the central topics of his campaign.

What is the plan for the renegotiation?

The persistent U.S. deficit in goods trade with Canada and Mexico demands that the administration take quick action to revise the relationship and adapt to the new global environment. In 2016, the U.S. deficit in goods with Canada is $42.848 billion (Data from Census.gov.foreign-trade/balance), which is only 2% of the total Canadian trade of $545 billion.

The trade deficit in goods with Mexico is $63.191 billion. Exports are $231 billion, made up primarily of auto parts and petroleum products, while imports are $294 billion, with cars, trucks, and auto parts being the largest components.

In addition, this administration believes that Mexico has taken millions of manufacturing jobs from the U.S. Should the U.S. or Mexico just leave NAFTA?

My short answer is NO. According to the data provided by Mexican government, more than 80% of Mexican goods exports are tax free to the United States, and since the signing of the trade agreement, all kinds of US companies in Mexico have grown with large number of jobs.

In the United States, some U.S. manufacturers get hurt because of NAFTA, while most American farmers profit from the agreement. Withdrawing from NAFTA will aggravate the U.S. goods trade deficit and tensions will continue to escalate, and eventually this will lead to the rupture of NAFTA.

Mexican cars will be more competitive in the United States due to depreciation of the peso, and the trade deficit will expand. On the other hand, Mexico is the third largest agricultural export market for the United States and U.S. exports of agricultural products will be more expensive for Mexican consumers.

As President Trump moves to revisit the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, some are concerned these negotiations would actually limit the aggregate benefits the United States can gain. Some even claim that the United States may be handing a leadership role to China, a country that has repeatedly ignored intellectual property laws and manipulates its own currency.

Handing this role to a country who’s bad practices are at the helm of whats wrong with global economy could make for a trying situation, and one that President Trump should think about before passing the torch to China.

Gaining a Competitive Edge—Companies Turn to Cloud Computing

Internal-devaluationAs we enter the second quarter of 2017, the global economy is experiencing its sixth year of stagnation, and the growth outlook does not indicate any improvement. Consumers and businesses share a sense of anxiety, uncertainty and reticence regarding both the economic and political environment across the globe.

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Freedom and Globalization: Simultaneously Possible

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Source: http://xlcatlin.com/

Prof. Dr. Michael Czinkota and Dr. Valbona Zeneli

 

Globalization, trade and investment deserve our ”Thank You” for their achievements. Yes, currently, in Europe and the United States, popular discontent is forcefully expressed. An introvert trend has emerged, fed by nationalism, populism, xenophobia and anti-globalization rhetoric.

Globalization is not new; it has existed for centuries. What is different today is the speed of globalizing the world, made possible by new technologies, transportation networks, media, and international marketing. Many claim that never before in history has there been so much evidence about strong opposition to globalization. However, any comparison with the past is highly inaccurate. Only few records of resistance to globalization have been preserved for us today.

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Trade Implication of the Product Cycle

Product cycle theory shows how specific products were first produced and exported from one country but through product and competitive evolution shifted their location of production and export to other countries over time. Figure 3.4 illustrates the trade patterns that Vernon visualized as resulting from the maturing stages of a specific product cycle. As the product and the market for the product mature and change, the countries of its production and export shift.

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The product is initially designed and manufactured in the United States. In its early stages (from time t0 to t1), the United States is the only country producing and consuming the product. Production is highly capital-intensive and skilled-labor intensive at this time. At time t1, the United States begins exporting the product to other advanced countries, as Vernon classified them. These countries possess the income to purchase the product in its still new-product stage, in which it was relatively high priced. These other advanced countries also commerce their own production at time t1 but continue to be net importers. A few exports, however, do find their way to the less-developed countries at this time as well.

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Strategic Trade Part II

Repetition

Some firms in some industries have inherent competitive advantages, often efficiency based, from simply having produced repetitively for years. Sometimes referred to as “learning-by-doing,” these firms may achieve competitive cost advantages from producing not only more units (as in the scale economics described above) but from producing more units over time. A government that wishes to promote these efficiency gains by domestic firms can help the firm move down the learning curve faster by protecting the domestic market from foreign competitors. Again similar in nature to the infant industry argument, the idea is not only to allow the firm to produce more, but to produce more cumulatively over time to gain competitive knowledge from the actual process itself.

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